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Koizumi's Landslide Election a Watershed Moment in Japanese Politics



HONOLULU (September 12) -- The results of this Sunday's lower house of Parliament election in Japan will undoubtedly be considered one of the definitive moments in Japanese politics, says an East-West Center Japan expert.



"Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's ability to carry off what must be seen as one of the greatest gambles in postwar electoral politics earns him a place in history as one of Japan's most masterful political strategists," said Sheila Smith, a research fellow at the East-West Center. "This new practice of using elections to gain a mandate for policy choices will make the September 2005 election a watershed moment in Japanese politics."



The most stunning outcome of Sunday's election was that Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) managed to deal the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) a significant defeat - a loss of 64 seats - and capture a clear majority in the powerful lower house with 296 out of 480 seats. Unable to move Koizumi off message on the importance of postal reform for Japan's commitment to change, the DPJ leaders failed to capitalize on other policy issues during the campaign.



Voter turnout in this election was also considerably higher than the past two elections, Smith noted. "Clearly, the impulse to ask the Japanese voters to support his choice of priorities was on the mark," she said. "Japan's voters turned out, and they chose Koizumi's definition of Japan's priorities."



From a low of barely 60% in the last election, Koizumi can claim credit for a remarkable upswing in voter participation in Sunday's election.Close to 68% of the electorate turned out to make their views heard in Koizumi's referendum on change, the highest ever in this new era of Japanese politics, she said. This jump in voter participation was most notable in metropolitan and suburban districts where voter turnout increased by 9 to 10% in some areas. On top of that, almost nine million voters used the new absentee ballot option.



"Koizumi's LDP - and it is today without a doubt Koizumi's party - killed two birds with one stone on Sunday," Smith said.It punished the 37 party members in the lower house who voted against the prime minister's postal reform legislation this summer, a priority set forth by Koizumi himself as the crucial test of the country's ability to institute structural reforms. He ejected the wayward members from the LDP and ran "assassin" candidates -- many of them young and telegenic and women - in their districts and succeeded in ousting most of them from their parliamentary seats. "It was political theater of the highest order, and Koizumi won his right to claim the party as his own," Smith said.



But, she regards the blow to the main opposition party, DPJ's failure to take advantage of the hastily called election and the struggle within the LDP,the bigger victory. "For the first time since Japanese voters tested the new electoral system in 1996, there was a clear-cut challenger to the LDP, and one that seemed to be able to appeal to a large swath of the Japanese electorate," Smith said. Yet, despite an appealing policy agenda that capitalized on some of Koizumi's weaknesses, voters were not convinced that DPJ was truly the party Japan needed.



With a significant majority of seats in the lower house, the LDP coalition with the New Komeito party is no longer technically necessary but Koizumi has announced he will continue to work with his coalition partners."Together, the LDP and Komeito now hold 327 seats in the lower house, a two-thirds majority that gives the government unprecedented legislative support for its policy initiatives," she said. "The question now is how will Mr. Koizumi use his new mandate?"



She anticipates his reform agenda will certainly need to address domestic policy challenges, many of them like pension reform revolving around Japan's aging society. But broader changes, such as constitutional reform, could well be on Koizumi's mind. "In a few weeks the LDP will celebrate its 50th

anniversary, and its draft for revising the Constitution is due to be unveiled," she said. "Koizumi has long argued that Japan needs to clarify its policy on its postwar military, the Self-Defense Force. This is a conversation that will undoubtedly continue for some time, but a two-thirds majority in the lower house makes it conceivable that the amendment process will be looked at more concretely in the year ahead."



Smith also expects foreign relations will require an investment of some of Koizumi's newfound political capital, particularly the finalizing of the bilateral agreement on the relocation of U.S. forces. "Reducing the military presence in Okinawa and convincing other localities to absorb some of the changes will involve considerable political will," she said.



The more difficult policy challenge will be Japan's relationship with China, she predicts. "Bilateral talks remain difficult and recent political tensions threaten to turn a host of sensitive unresolved issues - such as territorial claims, natural resource development and longer term military intentions - into greater irritants," she said.



"Mr. Koizumi has made the party his after four years of often fierce and difficult battles with his opponents within," Smith said. On Monday, the prime minister insisted he will keep his promise to step down as party leader in September 2006. "In the year ahead, his task will be to prove to the Japanese voters that he is indeed Japan's agent of change. And Mr. Koizumi's LDP will need to prove that it can continue to be the party of change even after its master strategist is no longer at the helm."



Sheila Smith can be reached at (808)944-7427 or at smiths@eastwestcenter.org













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