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Much Anticipation for Six-Party Talks, But Stakes Are High
HONOLULU (July 25) -- Bilateral discussions between the U.S and North Korea before the resumption of six-party talks in China on Tuesday have raised expectations for the latest round of negotiations on North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Other bilateral efforts to achieve a way out of the year-long stalemate in the six-party talks, including Chinese and South Korean initiatives to persuade Pyongyang to return to the bargaining table, create a sense of momentum for the formal talks this week.
"It is important to remember that these various changes in individual positions are part and parcel of a larger and quite choreographed effort to encourage North Korea to open its nuclear program to international inspection," said Sheila Smith, a specialist on Northeast Asian security issues at the East-West Center.
A comprehensive approach that will satisfy all interests in the talks will need to meet the longer-term interests of Pyongyang's neighbors, she said. "While the common goal is to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, there are shades of differences in terms of how to achieve this goal. The U.S. and Japan are increasingly impatient with the results thus far of the six-party effort. The Bush Administration is publicly committed to a regional effort to persuade Pyongyang, and appreciates that the risk of these weapons and of any potential crisis on the peninsula will be felt first and foremost by South Korea."
Smith added that China has long been unwilling to move in the direction of sanctioning North Korea for its nuclear program. "And yet, it is clear that Beijing too worries about stability on the Korean peninsula," she said, "and the growing impact North Korea is having on Japan's perceptions of its security needs."
Japan remains locked in a fight with North Korea over the remains of Japanese citizens abducted by Pyongyang. "While Japan's participation in the six-party framework is fundamental to the success of the negotiations, it is unlikely that any movement on this issue will appear until North Korea has provided Tokyo with more detailed information on the missing abductees," she said.
Smith said the capacity of the six-party framework to address the nuclear proliferation issues is increasingly questionable. "While a regional dialogue on security issues, especially one as pressing as the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is vital for Northeast Asia, it is not clear that this framework will be sustainable unless it can produce a level of tangible and demonstrable progress," she said. "It is not yet clear whether or not Pyongyang wants to discuss in concrete terms what it is ready to do to move in the direction of dismantling its nuclear weapons program."
U.S. chief negotiator Christopher Hill's announcement that he is willing to remain in Beijing for a month is another indication the Bush Administration is committed to persuading Pyongyang to abandon its weapons program. "Washington's emphasis on ending Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program, of course, has implications beyond the Asia Pacific region," Smith said, "and for this reason, Washington is more impatient with the protracted effort to find a comprehensive solution to dealing with Pyongyang's insecurities."
By its own admission, North Korea has a nuclear arsenal, Smith said. "The conversations, formal and informal, in Beijing this week must determine whether or not there is a way to negotiate an end to this danger to regional stability."
"Much depends on North Korea," she said. "Much too depends on the flexibility and latitude given to the diplomats that will meet with Pyongyang's representatives in Beijing. But the time has come to demonstrate that the six-party process is not simply a way to avoid difficult decisions, and that this framework can produce a creative and long-lasting vision for a peaceful Korean peninsula."
Sheila Smith can be reached at (808)944-7427, by email at:smiths@eastwestcenter.orgor view her page athttp://www.eastwestcenter.org/about-dy-detail.asp?staff_ID=384
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