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Philippines' Ramos Plays 'Queenmaker' Role while Presidential 'Musical Chairs' Does Little for the Poor Majority



HONOLULU (July 11) -- With Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo under growing pressure to resign or face impeachment, former President Fidel Ramos has remained Arroyo's staunchest supporter, publicly huddling with her on a daily basis.



The closeness of President Arroyo's relationship with Ramos raises the possibility of the retired general's reemergence as a significant national political figure in the Philippines, said Gerard Finin, a Philippine specialist at the East-West Center. "The former president's apparent willingness to seek political rebirth is seen as a positive development to the extent it has buttressed the Philippine military's inclination to remain neutral," Finin said.



Since the collapse of the Marcos regime in 1986, only one president, Fidel Ramos, has come into office via an orderly electoral process and completed the six-year term of office.While Ramos considered ways to extend his term beyond 1998, in the end he facilitated an orderly transition process. "Subsequently, Ramos' influence waned and his voice as a national leader became increasingly marginalized," said Finin.



The roots of the current crisis center on questions of improper interference on Arroyo's part with tabulation of votes during the 2004 presidential election. Adding to the political furor, 10 of Arroyo's cabinet members subsequently submitted their resignations and called for the president to step down.



Former President Corazon Aquino, who continues to command considerable moral authority, has now called on Arroyo to "do the right thing for the country in this hour of trial" by resigning.Meanwhile, the powerful Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines is for the time being stopping short of calling for Arroyo to resign.



As a first response to the political whirlwind, including speculation that her spouse is associated with illegal gambling rackets, President Arroyo sent husband Jose Miguel Arroyo into exile abroad. "Through this highly staged maneuver, Arroyo is suggesting to voters that her love of the nation is paramount," Finin said. "Such is the soap opera quality of politics that Filipinos endure.



"But with division among the Philippines' elite, momentum for Arroyo's resignation is likely to slow in favor of a drawn out and drama-filled impeachment process," he predicted. "Sadly, many Filipinos have come to see changes in presidential leadership as being akin to political musical chairs where they are mere observers."



"Unlike previous political upheavals over the past two decades that involved large numbers of Filipino citizens taking to the streets to assert 'People Power,'" Finin said, "the poor majority in Manila this time appear to recognize that there is faint hope of any presidential successor to Arroyo making a tangible improvement in their daily lives.



"Filipinos are under no illusion that Arroyo's often-voiced promises to focus on 'getting our economy moving' will bring any fundamental changes to the elite-dominated social structure that has long subjugated the Philippines' poor majority," he said. "The circus-like atmosphere that is likely to accompany the impeachment process will have little bearing on the hardships and inequality that characterize everyday life in the Philippines."



Gerard Finin can be reached at (808) 944-7751 or fininj@EastWestCenter.org



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